Integrated Trends Analysis Team Projects and Resources
Tributary Summaries
The Chesapeake Bay Program and its partners produce tributary basin summary reports for the Bay’s 12 major tributaries using tidal monitoring data from more than 130 monitoring stations throughout the mainstem and tidal portions of the Bay. These reports use water quality sample data to summarize 1) How tidal water quality (TN, TP, DO, Chlorophyll a, Secchi Depth) has changed over time, 2) How and which factors may influence water quality change over time, and 3) Recent research connecting observed changes in aquatic conditions to its drivers. The available products for each basin are listed below, and the corresponding documents are attached.
- Choptank (includes the Choptank, Little Choptank, and Honga) Summary, Appendix
- James (includes the Appomattox, Chickahominy, and Elizabeth Tributaries) Summary and Appendix in one document, Story Map
- Lower E. Shore (includes the Nanticoke, Manokin, Wicomico, Big Annemessex, and Pocomoke Rivers, and Tangier Sound) Summary, Appendix
- Maryland Lower Western Shore (includes the Magothy, Severn, South, Rhode, and West rivers) Summary, Appendix
- Maryland Mainstem (includes the five Chesapeake Bay mainstem segments within the Maryland state boundary. Drainage basins include the Susquehanna River and upper Chesapeake Bay shorelines) Summary, Appendix
- Maryland Upper Eastern Shore (includes the Northeast, Bohemia, Elk, Back Creek, Sassafras, and Chester Rivers, the Chesapeake & Delaware Canal, and Eastern Bay) Summary, Appendix
- Maryland Upper Western Shore (includes the Bush, Gunpowder, and Middle rivers) Summary, Appendix
- Patapsco and Back Summary, Appendix
- Patuxent (includes the Western Branch tributary) Summary, Appendix
- Potomac: Summary, Appendix, Story Map
- Rappahannock (includes the Corrotoman tributary) Summary, Appendix, Story Map
- Virginia Mainstem: Summary not available, Appendix
- York (includes the Mattaponi and Pamunkey tributaries) Summary, Appendix
- Choptank Tributary Summary [PDF, 5.3 MB]
- Choptank Appendix [PDF, 4.4 MB]
- James Tributary Summary and Appendix [PDF, 8.7 MB]
- Lower Eastern Shore Tributary Summary [PDF, 5.2 MB]
- Lower Eastern Shore Appendix [PDF, 4.2 MB]
- Maryland Lower Western Shore Tributary Summary [PDF, 4.8 MB]
- Maryland Lower Western Shore Appendix [PDF, 3.6 MB]
- Maryland Mainstem Tributary Summary [PDF, 6.1 MB]
- Maryland Mainstem Appendix [PDF, 4.4 MB]
- Maryland Upper Eastern Shore Tributary Summary [PDF, 5.3 MB]
- Maryland Upper Eastern Shore Appendix [PDF, 4.2 MB]
- Maryland Upper Western Shore Tributary Summary [PDF, 4.5 MB]
- Maryland Upper Western Shore Appendix [PDF, 3.5 MB]
- Patapsco & Back Tributary Summary [PDF, 4.6 MB]
- Patapsco & Back Appendix [PDF, 3.3 MB]
- Patuxent Tributary Summary [PDF, 5.5 MB]
- Patuxent Appendix [PDF, 4.7 MB]
- Potomac Tributary Summary [PDF, 5.3 MB]
- Potomac Appendix [PDF, 4.4 MB]
- Rappahannock Tributary Summary [PDF, 4.8 MB]
- Rappahannock Appendix [PDF, 4.6 MB]
- Virginia Mainstem Appendix [PDF, 5.0 MB]
- York Tributary Summary [PDF, 5.8 MB]
- York Appendix [PDF, 4.9 MB]
Maps of 2023 Tidal Water Quality Change
The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP), Maryland Department of Natural Resources (MDDNR), Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VADEQ), Old Dominion University (ODU), District of Columbia Department of Energy and the Environment (DC DOEE), and Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) collaborate annually to produce bay-wide summaries of water quality trends in the tidal waters. These annual estimates at more than 150 stations for nutrients, dissolved oxygen, Secchi depth, chlorophyll a and other parameters help gauge the health of the bay and identify changes due to management actions and climate. The 2023 Tidal Trends Summary document attached below summarizes these results. Additional tools are available to explore the tidal trends results including baytrendsmap and the Watershed Data Dashboard, Tidal page.
1. Long-Term Change
Observed change in water quality by station from the beginning of the period to 2023. The beginning of the period varies for stations but is indicated in the bottom right corner of the map.
- Chlorophyll a Surface Spring Long Term Change 2023 [PNG, 519.6 KB]
- Chlorophyll a Surface Summer Long Term Change 2023 [PNG, 513.5 KB]
- Dissolved Oxygen Bottom Summer Long Term Change 2023 [PNG, 498.9 KB]
- Secchi Depth Annual Long Term Change 2023 [PNG, 543.9 KB]
- Total Nitrogen Surface Annual Long Term Change 2023 [PNG, 538.9 KB]
- Total Phosphorus Surface Annual Long Term Change 2023 [PNG, 530.2 KB]
- Total Suspended Solids Surface Annual Change 1999 2023 [PNG, 544.6 KB]
- Water Temperature Surface Annual Long Term Change 2023 [PNG, 552.2 KB]
2. Long-Term Flow-Adjusted Change
Change in water quality by station computed under the condition of average freshwater flow into the Chesapeake Bay over the long-term. This approach answers the question: “What would the change in water quality have been if flow had been average?”
- Chlorophyll a Surface Spring Long Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 512.0 KB]
- Chlorophyll a Surface Summer Long Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 513.4 KB]
- Dissolved Oxygen Bottom Summer Long Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 497.4 KB]
- Secchi Depth Annual Long Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 549.0 KB]
- Total Nitrogen Surface Annual Long Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 531.6 KB]
- Total Phosphorus Surface Annual Long Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 537.2 KB]
- Total Suspended Solids Surface Annual Long Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 548.7 KB]
- Water Temperature Surface Annual Long Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 556.5 KB]
3. Short-Term Change
Observed change in water quality by station over the last 10 years (2014-2023).
- Chlorophyll a Surface Spring Short Term Change 2023 [PNG, 507.6 KB]
- Chlorophyll a Surface Summer Short Term Change 2023 [PNG, 505.6 KB]
- Dissolved Oxygen Bottom Summer Short Term Change 2023 [PNG, 460.1 KB]
- Secchi Depth Annual Short Term Change 2014 2023 [PNG, 497.9 KB]
- Total Nitrogen Surface Annual Short Term Change 2023 [PNG, 486.9 KB]
- Total Phosphorus Surface Annual Short Term Change 2023 [PNG, 465.8 KB]
- Water Temperature Surface Annual Short Term Change 2023 [PNG, 516.1 KB]
- Total Suspended Solids Surface Annual Short Term Change 2023 [PNG, 522.2 KB]
4. Short-Term Flow-Adjusted Change
Observed change in water quality computed under the condition of average freshwater flow into the Chesapeake Bay over the last 10 years (2013-2022).
- Chlorophyll a Surface Spring Short Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 510.5 KB]
- Chlorophyll a Surface Summer Short Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 505.4 KB]
- Dissolved Oxygen Bottom Summer Short Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 448.5 KB]
- Secchi Depth Annual Short Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 499.6 KB]
- Total Nitrogen Surface Annual Short Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 487.9 KB]
- Total Phosphorus Surface Annual Short Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 483.3 KB]
- Total Suspended Solids Surface Annual Short Term Flow Adjusted Change 2023 [PNG, 525.1 KB]
Additional 2023 Results
Includes other depths and parameters not included in sections 1-4 above. Please visit our baytrendsmap for additional maps and resources.
Please reach out to Gabriel Duran (gduran@chesapeakebay.net) or Rebecca Murphy (rmurphy@chesapeakebay.net) for the 2022 results.
GAM Documentation
- Appendix 2 6b summary of censoring [PDF, 596.2 KB]
- Appendix 2 6a censored data approaches [PDF, 633.1 KB]
- Appendix 2 5a percent change [PDF, 531.5 KB]
- Appendix 2 4a ex gam models [PDF, 706.9 KB]
- Appendix 2 3a qw data format [PDF, 167.9 KB]
- Appendix 2 1a example r package files 2 [PDF, 873.2 KB]
- Appendix 1a baytrends quick start instructions 2 [PDF, 2.3 MB]
- Draft gam method for chesapeake 5 10 18 [PDF, 1.1 MB]
- Appendix 2 6c censoring scenarios [PDF, 8.6 MB]
- Appendix 2 7a lab change approch [PDF, 710.3 KB]
- Appendix 2 8a create seasonally detrended flow and salinity data sets [PDF, 294.9 KB]