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Understanding and Explaining 30 Years of Water Clarity Trends in the Chesapeake Bay’s Tidal Waters

Water clarity is widely recognized as an important indicator of the health and trophic state of aquatic ecosystems and is a key management target given the limit it imposes on the growth of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). A better understanding of the controls on water clarity variability may expand our understanding of SAV trends, while providing new insights into the interactions between eutrophication, sediment inputs, and the concentrations and composition of suspended solids. This workshop brought together experts from the multiple disciplines needed to synthesize the current state of the science on water clarity trends and the factors that affect them, and to identify priorities for future research. The group was also asked to address an explicit set of questions posed by the Chesapeake Bay Program in the original STAC workshop proposal. Those questions, along with the group’s responses and recommendations for future work, are summarized in this report.

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Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling in 2025 and Beyond: A Proactive Visioning Workshop

The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) has used its modeling system as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and adaptation toward Bay restoration since the 1980s. This modeling system has been continually updated with improvements and advancements intended to keep pace with emerging science. However, it has been more than a decade since the Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) convened a dedicated workshop to discuss future directions for the suite of modeling tools used by the CBP. Given developments over the past twelve years (since the previous model visioning workshop), and the completion of the 2017 Mid-point Assessment of the EPA’s Total Maximum Daily Load regulatory process, STAC agreed that 2018 was an appropriate time to convene a workshop aimed at formulating a vision for future CBP modeling to guide the partnership into the future (i.e., from 2025 and beyond).

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The Development of Climate Projections for Use in Chesapeake Bay Program Assessments

A workshop entitled Development of Climate Projections for Use in Chesapeake Bay Program Assessments was organized to help the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) assess the applicability of available climate data, downscaling techniques, projections and scenarios to establish an approach for climate analysis in CBP models and assessments. The goal of this workshop was to assist the CBP with the selection process and formulate recommendations for future application of climate projections in assessments to be undertaken by the Partnership, including modeling efforts to support the 2017 Midpoint Assessment, as well as other programmatic climate change impact assessments.

The workshop was well attended by climate change scientists as well as CBP decision-makers and technical managers. A key finding of the workshop was that substantial scientific understanding currently exists, supporting the need to plan and act on the ongoing, continuous – but heretofore unrecognized – influence of climate change on Chesapeake restoration efforts, despite uncertainties. The workshop centered entirely on technical aspects related to climate science, research, data and information needs; matters of CBP policy were not addressed. Nevertheless, the workshop was partly motivated by existing policies, such as the 2010 Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), that call for an assessment of the impacts of a changing climate on Chesapeake Bay water quality and living resources. The 2014 Chesapeake Bay Agreement also includes 29 individual management strategies, covering a wide range of watershed restoration goals that can only be sustained over the long term by addressing climate change impacts

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Factors Influencing the Headwaters, Nontidal, Tidal, and Mainstem Fish Habitat Function in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: Application to Restoration and Management Decisions

In support of the Chesapeake Bay Program’s (CBP) Fish Habitat Outcome 2-Year Work Plan (2018-19), the Sustainable Fisheries and Vital Habitat Goal Implementation Teams (GITs) obtained funding from the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) to conduct a workshop to develop a Fish Habitat AssessmentFramework for the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed (hereafter referred to as “the Watershed”). The workshop’sobjective was to identify the necessary information and analytical approaches needed to assess the condition and vulnerability of fish habitat in the Watershed. Such an assessment could identify the condition and primary drivers of fish habitat change, better guide conservation and restoration planning and investments, develop specific habitat management objectives to support the productivity of fish stocks, and evaluate the effectiveness of efforts to conserve and restore fish habitat.

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